Assessing the impact of war in Yemen: Pathways for recovery

UNDP Yemen has once again partnered with the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. The report, Assessing the Impact of War in Yemen: Pathways for Recovery, continues to apply integrated modeling techniques to better understand the dynamics of the conflict and its impact on development in Yemen.

Released in November 2021, this report explores postconflict recovery and finds that war has continued to devastate the country; the conflict’s death toll has already grown 60 per cent since 2019. However, if a sustainable and implementable peace deal can be reached, there is still hope for a brighter future in Yemen.

Seven different recovery scenarios were modeled to better understand prospects and priorities for recovery and reconstruction in Yemen. The analysis identified key leverage points and recommendations for a successful recovery – including empowering women, making investments in agriculture, and leveraging the private sector. Moreover, by combining these, it is possible to save hundreds of thousands of additional lives and put Yemen on a path not only to catch up with – but to surpass – its pre-war SDG trajectory by 2050.

Through achieving a peace deal, pursuing an integrated recovery strategy, and leveraging key transformative opportunities, it is indeed possible for Yemen to make up for lost time and offer better opportunities to the next generation.

PREVIOUS REPORTS

In April 2019, the first of three reports, Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen, commissioned by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Yemen, revealed that the war had already set back development by more than two decades and caused more deaths from indirect causes such as hunger and disease than deaths from conflict-related violence.

The second report, Assessing the Impact of War in Yemen on Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), released in September 2019, predicted that if conflict persists past 2019, Yemen will have the greatest depth of poverty, second poorest imbalance in gender development, lowest caloric intake per capita, second greatest reduction in economic activity relative to 2014, and second greatest income inequality of any country in the world.